The November trainer trends you need on your side…

November: Time for Mullins to get serious…

November.

Paddy Power Chase month.

Hennessy Gold Cup month.

Betfair Chase month.

Now we’re talking!

The jumping game now starts to effortlessly click through the gears this month and here are a few trainer stats you want to be keeping on your side…

*Stats sourced from the Proform database – The past six November’s is the period used for analysis

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The 90+ day trainers…

The followers trainers have their first time out runners (returning from breaks of 90+ days) fit and ready to fire from the get go….

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Willie Mullins

72/170 | 42% S/R | -£6.25 BFSP – Win & Place 112/170 | 66% S/R

No surprises here but those strike-rates of 42% and 66% and mightily impressive, even if you are Willie Mullins.

We need to dig a bit deeper before profits surface so…

Mullins 90+ November Hurdlers | Ridden by Ruby Walsh | Top two in the market

26/35 | 74% S/R | +£11.94 BFLSP – Win & Place 31/35 | 89% S/R

A simply outstanding strike-rate of 74%. Trained by the best. Ridden by the best. Rarely miss the target.

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Emma Lavelle

21/71 | 30% S/R | +£68.11 BFLSP – Win & Place 38/71 | 54% S/R

Lavelle has struggled a touch in the past couple of seasons but there are signs that things are picking up again this year and her November 90+ day runners have always been a solid bunch to follow.

To tighten things up a little it pays to concentrate mainly on her runners at Class 3 level and below…

21/59 | 36% S/R | +£80.11 BFLSP – Win & Place 35/59 | 59% S/R

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Harry Fry

9/26 | 35% S/R | +£10.66 | Win & Place 14/26 | 54% S/R

Still relatively early days for Fry as a solo trainer but he’s clearly inherited the knack of getting one ready off a break from his former master Paul Nicholls.

His Non-Handicap runners are the best place to concentrate your efforts…

8/15 | 53% S/R | +£13.19 BFLSP – Win & Place 9/15 | 60% S/R

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Tony Martin

12/46 | 26% S/R | +£28.89 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/46 | 39% S/R

Mr Martin just bobs along doing his own things most of the year, looking for the odd plot here and there, however, he’s more than capable of getting one fit and ready first time out, especially at this stage of the season.

He’s particularly adept at getting his runners off a break of 150+ days fit and bouncing in November…

12/37 | 32% S/R | +£37.84 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/37 | 49% S/R

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The handicap masters…

The following trainers have their handicappers in prime shape during November….

Handicap Chases

Venetia Williams

35/168 | 21% S/R | +£105.40 BFLSP – Win & place 64/168 | 38% S/R

Certainly no secret that Venetia has her handicap chasers in tip-top shape in November but nevertheless its still well worth reiterating her dominance.

It’s also well worth noting that her two main boys – Aidan Coleman & Liam Treadwell – are the two we should be paying particular attention to…

33/128 | 26% S/R | +£128.68 – Win & Place 52/128 | 41% S/R

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James Ewart

15/50 | 30% S/R | +£24.82 BFLSP – Win & Place 25/50 | 50% S/R

Ewart is another that has his handicap chasers in prime condition in November.

It’s well worth noting his handicappers that are coming in off the back of a top three finish…

10/22 | 45% S/R | +£23.06 BFSP – Win & Place 13/22 | 59% S/R

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Handicap Hurdles

Jim Best

12/39 | 31% S/R | +£13.72 BFLSP – Win & place 17/39 | 44% S/R

Best wouldn’t be operating at the top levels but he can certainly get his handicap hurdlers firing at the lower levels in November.

The most interesting sub-set of his November handicap hurdlers are those that are sent to right-handed tracks…

10/21 | 48% S/R | +£26.25 BFLSP – Win & Place 13/21 | 62% S/R

*For the record I have many theories on the LH/RH trainer runners bias. It would almost certainly be a blog post on it’s own so I’m not going to go into that just now. I may one day however…

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Tom Symonds

8/21 | 38% S/R | +£65.84 BFLSP – Win & Place 13/21 | 62% S/R

Symonds is one of a number of the younger breed of trainer currently making their way up the training ranks and from his limited numbers this mini-angle does stand out.

No guarantee it will continue in the long-term but at the moment it’s eye-catching and worth keeping on the radar.

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The novice specialists…

The following trainers have their Novice runners in prime form during November…

Novice Hurdlers…

Rebecca Curtis

13/41 | 32% S/R | +£20.41 BFLSP – Win & Place 21/41 | 51% S/R

A 32% strike-rate with her novice hurdlers is a clear indication that she has them fit and well during November.

It’s also well worth noting them when the money is down (top 3 in the market)…

13/26 | 50% S/R | +£35.32 BFLSP – Win & Place 20/26 | 77% S/R

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Donald McCain

30/120 | 25% S/R | +£45.79 BFLSP – Win & Place 63/120 | 53% S/R

It hasn’t been the greatest of times for McCain recently but his novice hurdlers have are still worth keeping in mind, especially in November.

There is also a significant up-turn in the figures if you concentrate on his front runners & close to pace runners…

30/98 | 31% S/R | +£67.74 BFLSP – Win & Place 55/120 | 56% S/R

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Novice Chasers…

Paul Nicholls

33/88 | 38% S/R | +£4.62 BFLSP – Win & Place 42/88 | 48% S/R

I started this article with the Irish powerhouse Willie Mullins so it’s only fair I finish it with the English version!

Nicholls really starts to gun his squad in November and his novice chasers hit the mark with startling regularity.

His novice chasers are at their most potent in Non-Handicap contests where there are six or less runners

24/48 | 50% S/R | +£24.25 BFLSP – Win & Place 27/48 | 56% S/R

 

Happy November punting one and all. Let the fun begin!

Ben (NTF)

 

With thanks to Proform…

 

Proform Racing | The professional Formbook

8 Comments

  • Kevin Bunce

    Reply Reply November 1, 2015

    Ben
    Once you get to the Handicap masters for November is that still applying 90 days+ or all runners, great stats if they keep up to past results thanks

    • Ben Aitken

      Reply Reply November 1, 2015

      Hi Kevin

      All separate angles. Only Mullins, Lavelle, Fry & Martin are 90+ for November.

      Other angles don’t take into account 90+.

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

  • Dave Brown

    Reply Reply November 1, 2015

    Hi Ben

    You are doing a great service @ the moment long may it last

    be lucky
    Dave

    • Ben Aitken

      Reply Reply November 1, 2015

      Thanks Dave

      Ben (NTF)

  • Ian

    Reply Reply November 2, 2015

    Hi Ben

    Good start for NTF and I picked a nice 7/1 winner yesterday in Vintage Star. Not least in my considerations was your horse notes giving invaluable additional information.

    This is something all new subscribers should take on board; in terms of both value for money and when deciding to stay with the service long term. The notes when loaded into fo my software automatically get added to the shortlist which I see every time a horse is due to run.

    Best

    Ian

    • Ben Aitken

      Reply Reply November 2, 2015

      Hi Ian

      Yes a solid start which is always good.

      Glad you picked up on Vintage Star, a handy easing by the handicapper and back on a RH track did the job just fine.

      As you know a big part of my own betting comes from the mass of notes I accumulate and always great when others take advantag of them as well, top work.

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

  • Peter Bloxham

    Reply Reply November 4, 2015

    Hi Ben, new member and thoroughly enjoying the service you are providing. Currently busy filling up all my tracker runners and comments you supply! Great start too with the monthly trainer trends! Will you be supplying the trainer trends for each month? Cheers Pete

    • Ben Aitken

      Reply Reply November 4, 2015

      Great to hear Pete and glad you are enjoying the service.

      I hopefully will supply the trainer trends for each month, yes, all depends if I the patterns are still strong. I have rough templates I personally follow each month but I re-evaluate every season to make sure they are still solid and performing as hoped.

      Cheers- Ben (NTF)

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