NTF 2016 Kerry National Analysis: The Dosage & Trends Assault!

Image result for kerry national listowel

Who’s in prime position to claim Rogue Angels Kerry crown?

It appears it’s that time of year already!

Time for the beast of a race that is the Kerry National. 18 runners set to duel it out through the Listowel mud at 4.10pm today in search of the 100k+ pot.

As usual I’ve ripped into the race with my tried and tested Dosage and Trends analysis as I try yet again to nail the winner of this tricky b@st@rd of a race!

It one race that through the years continues to slip through my grasp. It has given me no end of each-way returns but continues to elude and frustrate me on the win part of my punts. Last year the short-head defeat of URANO added to the pile of each-way profits whilst simultaneously heaping on the agony of another non-winner finding year.

It could be worse, admittedly, but there’s nothing like nailing the winner is there.

It’s also possibly one of the more frustrating races on the calendar due to the fact that those pesky reserves have won the THREE of the last four renewals. I mean that’s nothing more than a damn pain in the ass!

But I’m a sucker for a National and I don’t let the past heartache put me off. Far from it. It only makes me more determined! One year I will nail this winner!!

I’m not one for chopping up my stakes too much on the punting side of things but at this very early stage of the season I would be ratcheting things down just a touch. It’s a race I love analyzing from a Dosage and Trends perspective, as it helps get my eye back into the jumping game for next month, but I don’t need to be shooting my usual load at my selections, I’ll keep myself on a tight-ish reign until mid-October swings into view.

It’s primarily a range-finder for me. A race to get the old National Hunt cogs oiled up and ready for the long hard season ahead.

How you play the race is up to yourself but to help you on your way you can download the full NTF analysis guide from the following link…

 

>>>Kerry National full NTF Analysis Guide

 

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

If, however, you just want to see what I’m backing my own personal selections are below…

 

Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 11)

KILLER CROW – 11/11

ARANHILL CHIEF – 11/11

WRATH OF TITANS – 11/11

RIGHTVILLE BOY – 10/11

SHADOW CATCHER – 10/11

 

Conclusion/Selection(s)

KILLER CROW (G Elliott) – This 7yo is still unexposed over 3 miles over fences. He’s been tried over the Irish National trip of 3m5f twice and although going well for a long time both times he did ultimately finish running on empty. This bare 3m on a flat track, however, should be well within range and there is no reason he shouldn’t last home. Heavy ground suits him (form of 112), he has strong June-Sept form (1022), 3 of his 4 wins have come left-handed and he’s at home on flat tracks (31120). The excellent Jack Kennedy gets the leg-up and he’ll be able to coax him home and strike late.

WRATH OF TITANS (G Elliott) – This one has been fairly highly tried in his chase career to date and although he’s not won since chase debut there have been flashes of promise, specifically when running in the G1 Novice at Leopardstown over Xmas. He ended up well beaten that day but he was bang there until 2 out and the runs plenty better than the bare form suggests. He’s still unexposed in this type of race, comes here off a confidence boosting win over hurdles and rates as an interesting outsider on an eye-catching mark.

RIGHTVILLE BOY (P Neville) – Ran a fine race behind Ballycassey two starts back and will be right at home on the ground here (3 of his 4 wins have come when Heavy in the description). He handles large fields well (3128162003 in 12-18 runner fields) and is worth a flyer at lofty odds.

 

Best of luck if you are getting involved today.

Ben (NTF)

 

p.s. Doors to the NTF 2016/17 members service are now open!

 

sign up now

 

p.p.s. here's a couple of examples of race guides from last seasons NTF service and this seasons BDH service so you can see how my unique NTF/BDH Dosage & Trends approach rips into the main part of the National Hunt & Flat seasons.

 

>>>NTF Example race Guide 2015/16

>>>BDH Example Race Guide 2016

 

4 Comments

  • Chicky

    Reply Reply September 14, 2016

    Boom!
    9/1 winner and 33/1 2nd and the forecast!
    Thank you very much and well done, you’ve got you winner in this race at last!
    Chicky

    • Ben Aitken

      Reply Reply September 14, 2016

      Cheers Chicky

      Glad to have finally nailed the winner of this one! Added another placed effort to the tally as well 😀

      Ben (NTF)

  • Jack

    Reply Reply September 14, 2016

    Yes, congratulations. Good things come to those who wait (and keep trying).

    • Ben Aitken

      Reply Reply September 14, 2016

      Thanks Jack

      I was getting closer and closer each year so I knew the figures were doing the business, just had to fine tune a bit.

      Cheers – Ben (NTF)

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