Will it be another classic for Cool Dad & the Demon Child?

Time for another dip into the flat waters today with the first Irish Classic of the 2013 season, the 2000 Guineas, coming under NTF analysis.

The race has proven to be a strong player on the Dosage and Trends front and hopefully this renewal will also prove to be of similar ilk.

You can download the full analysis guide, for FREE, from the following link…

>>> NTF Irish 2000 Guineas Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy punting however you decide to put the guide to use.

NTF on the flat…

I’m currently in the process of setting up a flat sister site to NTF so that any flat analysis that I undertake can be held in one place and NTF can concentrate on National Hunt racing all year round. The flat site will concentrate on a particular area of the flat game as it’s main focus, an area that on a personal level I have focused on for a few years, but will also hold any other flat work that I cover.

Stay tuned…

Winning Trainers 2.0…

I’m sure most of you have been made aware of Matt Bisogno’s latest offering – Winning Trainers 2.0 – and as is usually the case the available slots for this have been filling up uber-rapidly! The service has made cracking start from its first few qualifiers and Matt will be closing the doors this Monday or indeed when all spaces are filled (it looks a close race as to which one comes first!!).

If you want to grab one of the last remaining slots or indeed just take a gander at what all the fuss is about then scoot along to Winning Trainers 2.0.

Ben (NTF)

.

A Crook. Although not the same kind as the one that trains Mutanawwer!!

It was relatively quiet couple of days on the National Hunt front this weekend and in truth my notebook stayed shut most of the time. The flat action, as is to be expected at this time of the year, cranked up a notch and I must say that Farhh was hugely impressive in winning the Lockinge on Saturday. As mentioned on my NTF Facebook page he was unbeaten when returning from a break of 121 days+ and after his G1 romp on Saturday that still remains the case (4 from 4).

As far as runners to follow go there wasn’t much to get my radar twitching, however, there is one horse I want to share with you all who could turn out to be a major player at a minor yard…

NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: MUTANAWWER…

MUTANAWWER (A Crook) – 2nd in the Bumper at Marken Rasen (5.00) – Sunday 19th May

As far as a bumper on a Sunday at Market Rasen goes I have a feeling this one may turn out to be better than a standard run of the mill sort of race. The front two pulled upwards of 10 lengths clear of the others and the 3rd and 4th placed runners look like decent animals in their own right. Second placed Mutanawwer looks one that has plenty speed in his pedigree whilst the winner Make Me A Fortune, who was under a sustained A P McCoy drive, is packed full of stamina influences. In a tight contest (it went to a photo-finish) it was just the stamina traits of Make Me A Fortune that held out and although he is sure to be worthy of following over timber, especially when stepped up in trip, it is the runner up that particularly caught my eye. He traveled sweetly throughout most of the race and looked to be all over the winner as they both pulled away in the home straight, however, Make Me A Fortune’s stamina started to really kick in within the final furlong and the Crook horse just couldn’t quite hang on.

So where to now for MUTANAWWER?

It’s not that easy to pin-point exactly where he may turn up next but he looks more than capable of landing a bumper before heading over obstacles. It has to be said it wasn’t only the visual performance of Mutanawwer that caught my eye but also some of the stats connected with the yard.

Here are a couple worthy of mentioning…

Andy Crook doesn’t have the greatest record at Market Rasen – 0/23 in the past 5 years – so the fact this one all but landed in the winners enclosure had me interested.

Andy Crook’s bumper runners generally don’t win – 1/44 | 2% S/R | Win & Place 5/44 | 11% S/R (since start of 2008) – the fact that this only went down by a neck suggests he is one of the better bumper runners he has had in recent seasons.

Andy Crook’s runners (for whatever reason) perform better going left-handed than right-handed (Market R is right-handed) – L-Handed S/R is 7% compared to R-Handed S/R of 2% – again this is another indicator that this lad is potentially better than some of the recent runners Crook has had in the yard.

The fact MUTANAWWER was doing a few things that plenty others in the yard have failed to do simply added a bit more juice to his visually impressive performance on the track and again suggested that this lad has the potential to be a stable star.

With regards to where he could turn up next Sedgefield does look a potential for him as that is where Crook’s runners do perform at an eye-catching rate – 8/82 | 10% S/R | Win & Place 19/82 | 23% S/R.

On the breeding front (and specifically Dosage) the Red Ransom gelding holds plenty of influential sires (and, to a certain extent, dams) in his 4 generation pedigree and they give him a power-packed Dosage line of 6-10-25-2-1 | (DQ) | (44) | 1.84 | 0.41.

There are plenty of indicators that this 4yo has the credentials to be a well above average runner for the yard and he is well worthy of following.

*Stats sourced from the excellent Proform Database

.

1 To Follow: Honorable mention…

Stratford held a valuable Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Sunday and for the second race in a row WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (P Nicholls) ran an eye-catching race in 2nd without actually quite managing to win or indeed make my to follow list. I’m in 2 minds whether he is in the grip of the handicapper from his 150 mark or if he is just at a stage of his career where he will continually find at least 1 too good for him every time. As such he remains in my peripheral vision, without me actually knowing what to do with him…

.

Billie Magern & Problema Tic…

Judging by the number of emails, tweets and facebook comments I received plenty of you backed good old Billie Magern on his romp at Ludlow last week on the back of either my recent ‘ 1 to follow post’ or my FREE Summer Stunners guide. He was mightily impressive that day under what was essentially ideal conditions and there is every chance he could well follow up at some stage over the summer. It all really depends on how the handicapper reacts to his win and what mark he allocates when he reassesses him. Fingers crossed he doesn’t crucify him…

Problema Tic, another NTF 1 to follow runner, also took to the track last week. He turned up in a Class 3, 3 mile Handicap Hurdle at Aintree, not really the conditions I was marking him down as one to follow admittedly. I can only assume this was either a confidence booster after his early fall in the Scottish National or indeed a race to keep him sharp whilst at the same time protecting his chase mark. He was never really put into the contest (suggesting it was potentially just a run to keep him sharp) but he still remains as one to follow when getting his conditions back over fences.

.

FREE NTF Summer Stunners guide…

My latest FREE NTF guide was released to members of the FREE NTF Service last week. To date there have been 2 qualifiers from the 12 highlighted runners, with both winning – Billie Magern at 9/2 & Trackmate at 14/1. Clearly I don’t expect it to keep firing at this rate (chance would be a fine thing!) but the guide has already proven its worth to followers of the Summer Jumping game and I would expect it to keep doing so throughout the summer.

You can still download this guide by popping your name in the sign-up box at the top right of the Blog.

.

Ben – (NTF).

.

NTF Q&A

Name – Jamie Snowden

Occupation – Racehorse trainer

Years involved in racing – 18 years

First horseracing memory – Desert Orchid winning the 1989 Gold Cup

Background

What first stirred your interest in horseracing?

Jumping at speed – loved the idea of becoming a jockey…..

What was the main reason behind you becoming a trainer? 

I loved watching people train, and after picking up different ideas, I wanted to see if I could do the same.

Career to date

Proudest moment of career to date?

As a trainer it has to be winning the Summer National.  As a jockey it was certainly winning for the Queen.

Best horse you have trained?

Marodima or Knighton Combe

Which race involving one of your own horses stands out in your memory and why?

 Ixora winning at Cheltenham – it was our first Cheltenham winner.

In the trainers seat

Most enjoyable aspect of being a trainer? 

Seeing the delight on owners faces when you train them a winner.

How many horses do you currently have in training and do you plan on expanding? 

We have 30 horses, and are just building a few more boxes over the summer.

What is the one major advantage of your current training location?

The amazing gallops we have on offer here in Lambourn.

What is the best facility you have at your disposal for training the horses?

(i.e. terrain, gallop, walker, schooling ground…) There are so many different facilities here, but the best would have to be the all weather gallops.

Who has been the biggest influence on your training career?

Nicky Henderson.

How do you see the yard progressing in the coming year(s)?

I hope that we continue to improve the quality of the horses we have here to train, and increase the numbers in the yard to about 60.

How do you try and bring new owners into the yard?

Encouraging owners to spend a lot of time at the yard, making them feel they have been involved in the training aspect, being open with them and discussing plans and welcoming them into the house and making ownership about the whole package (yard and track)

In the jockeys seat

What do you miss the most about your days in the saddle?

The ability to ride winners, have a shower and walk away…..

What was the main aspect that you carried over from you riding days into the training ranks?

The ability to ‘get into a horses mind’.

Do you still regularly ride out at the yard or do you leave that up to others? 

I tend not to anymore, but I will throw my leg over now and again to get a feeling of a horse.

Wish list

Which horse currently in training to you wish you had in your yard? 

It has to be Sprinter Sacre – he’s a machine……

What race (that you had a runner in) do you wish you could re-run (good or bad)?

Lester Leaps In was our first ever runner and he was beaten a short head at Bangor – I wish we could re run it, and pinch another length here or there…..

Which race do you wish you had a ‘live contender’ for?

The Gold Cup

Racing and the general public

In your opinion what could be done to attract new fans to the sport?

A greater emphasis on syndicates, and how cheaply you can be involved – the idea of having university syndicates as well.  At the end of the day we have to get the younger generation involved.

Do you think Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, etc…) has had a positive impact on racing and how else do you think it could be used to further promote the sport?

 I think that social media certainly has a place, as we have to move with the times.  Further promotion of the sport can be achieved through ownership such as the Daily Mirror Punters Club.

Improving the sport

What one thing would you like to see implemented to improve horse racing -

a) on-course? Courses looking after owners better.

b) off-course? A more suitable race programme split into a winter season and a summer season, with a weeks gap between the two.

Horses to follow

Which horse in the yard should we look out for in 2013/14?

Present View

Are there any Dark horses in the yard to follow for this season?

Joanne One

Which of your older horses still has the ability to surprise us in the future?

Ixora

Name a horse to follow for this season (outwith own yard)?

Sybarite

Quickfire

Aintree Grand National or Cheltenham Gold Cup? Grand National

Walsh or McCoy? Walsh

Nicholls or Henderson? Tricky – Nicholls, but both have been very good to me.

At the track or in the yard? Both…..!

Just for fun

If you could have any superpower what would it be and why?

Have the ability to stop horses from bleeding…..I’d be a very rich man!!!

Many thanks to Jamie for taking part in the latest NTF Q&A session.

Jamie has his own website where you can keep up to date with all the stable news >>> http://www.jamiesnowdenracing.co.uk/

On the website there is also news on the Jamie Snowden Racing Club. Their Stormy Oscar just ran a solid 2nd at Worcester on his latest start and is now qualified for a handicap mark.

You can also Follow Jamie on Twitter – @jamiesnowden

Ben (NTF)

Doeslessthanme can Domorethanmost!

Plenty for me to report today so I won’t hang about.

I start, as is my usual Monday modus operandi, with my NTF ’1 to follow from the weekend’…

NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: DOESLESSTHANME…

DOESLESSTHANME (P Nicholls) – Faller in 2m Class 2 Hcp Chase at Worcester (3.10) – Sunday 12th May

Paul Nicholls’ 9yo only actually got as far as the 6th fence in this valuable Sunday contest, where he took what looked a fairly heavy fall. In fairness to the horse the leader at the time Gallox Bridge jumped violently across the front of him in mid-air and the resulting fall can hardly be blamed on sloppy jumping from the Nicholls runner. Until that point he looked to be travelling and jumping well on his first start on Good ground since his victory at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting in 2012.

So where to now for DOESLESSTHANME?

As already mentioned Sunday was his first start on what I would describe as his favoured ground since his convincing victory at Ayr in 2012. In between that run and Sunday’s start he ran 4 times, all of which were on Good to Soft or worse and in none of those runs has he really shaped as though he has been ready to reproduce his best. Added to all this he has probably been suffering from running from a mark that was above the ceiling of his abilities and/or under race conditions (wrong at the weights in non-handicaps) that would not have suited. The upshot of this is that he has slipped back down to a mark of 145 (only 1lb higher than his Ayr victory) and if Sunday is anything to go by Nicholls is now keen to use a claiming jockey to lessen his burden further to try and get him back to winning ways.

If we look at the horse’s monthly splits we can see he does have a much healthier strike-rate outwith the winter months…

Form from Mar-Oct – 111011F121

Form from Nov-Feb – 621F24531F213226

Admittedly he has never run in the heart of the summer but the temptation must now be to keep him on the go so that he is able to run on the better ground. If not keep him on the go at the very least scrub him off and then bring him back for some of the early season action around October time. He certainly has a strong record when fresh…

Record after a break of 90 days or more – 121121 

He isn’t really at a stage in his career where he will be able to go on a run of victories and it’s highly likely that a win will see him handicapped out of things again, however, he is now back around a mark he can win from and there should be plenty of opportunities for him to get his preferred ground. Even if he is now given a summer break he is a horse we should keep in mind for his comeback run as he does have strong figures when returning to the track from a break.

Doeslessthanme ideal conditions – Good or better ground (Good to soft at a push) | Runs well fresh | Handicap marks around 140-145 or below

.

The curious case of Mr Mole…

A monkey? Maybe.

Quirky? Definitely!

Talented? Without a doubt.

Breathing op this summer? Highly likely!

Cries of “are you Harchibald in disguise??” were heard up and down the country on Saturday as the talented but quirky MR MOLE again consented to NOT put his best hoof forward, this time in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock. If I’m honest, however, he only just failed to make it as my 1 to follow runner. “Are you mental Ben?!?” I hear plenty of you cry. Well yeah, maybe, but in this instance I think we can make a case for the 5yo. Clearly he has bundles of ability, of that there is little doubt, and he does look like he is a horse that has to be nudged and cajoled into a contest as quietly as possible, again of that there is little doubt, but I also feel he is a horse that has some strong (or at least is starting to show some strong) preferences.

For starters lets look at his record fresh…

Form after a break of 60 days or more – 111

Form when running within 59 days or less – 22P3

He is quirky and he wants/needs a sustained rest period.

Lets now look at his Left-Hand/Right-Hand preferences…

Form on Left-Handed tracks – 32

Form on Right-Hand tracks – 1121P

That is hardly conclusive but what got me on to thinking of this angle was his run in the Swinton this Saturday. When Harry Derham first went for a run at the winner Barizan he aimed Mr Mole down the left, the horse was having none of it. He then switched him to Barizan’s right and all of a sudden he picked up and consented to run on, albeit the race had gone by that stage, nevertheless Mr Mole noticeable straightened up and picked up. Granted this again is not conclusive proof but we are dealing with a quirky customer here and these little pointers may be all it takes to get him in the winners circle. Is this a sign he is more at home going right-handed?

The other angle that is noticeable from his limited form figures is his form over different trips…

Form over 2m – 2m 1/2f – 22P

Form over 2m1f – 1113

Once again it is far from conclusive evidence but it could just be a sign that he wants a bit further than a break-neck 2m-2m 1/2f contest. There are stamina influences in his pedigree so up in trip a little wouldn’t be out of the question.

Lastly I can’t help but wonder if Ruby may be a benefit to have on-board him? In his 7 career starts it is interesting to note that Ruby is yet to get the leg-up on him. It is a JP McManus horse so understandably when AP McCoy is available he is the first port of call, however, Ruby’s quiet riding style would surely be a benefit for this lad…

Mr Mole still has me interested, for now, and it would be no surprise to see him stroll home in a valuable handicap in October/November time on seasonal debut; fresh, right-handed, 2m1f or further…I’m probably on him!

.

Tony Star & Tour D’Argent…

Two previous ‘to follow’ runners were in action at Haydock on Saturday, Tony Star and Tour D’Argent, both contesting the valuable Class 2 intermediate handicap chase. Tony Star once again ran well at a decent Each-Way price without winning although he does just about continue to pay his way. I still think he is on a decent mark and although the each-way money gets pocketed he is proving to be a little frustrating. He equaled his career best on RPR figures and surely there is a race in him sooner rather than later. Tour D’Argent was running under the highlighted (chase) conditions for the first time since he made the NTF to follow list back in February and although he finished a well adrift 6th in the end there were glimmers of hope. The fact of the matter is that he was badly hampered by the ill fated Ulysse Collonges, who unfortunately broke down. That effectively put a stop to Tour D’Argents forward momentum and his chance was gone after that, he is easily forgiven this run and hopefully other opportunities will be found for him.

.

FREE NTF Summer Stunners guide…

I’m in the process of firming up this summer jumping guide and it will be with all you guys on the FREE NTF service shortly.

If you want this guide but are not on the free NTF service then simply pop your details in the form at the top right of this page and you will receive the guide when ready or indeed when you sign up (along with numerous other FREE NTF guides).

.

Ben – (NTF).

.

You put in the hard work, compile a solid short-list, have a runner who ticks every box and then BAM! you ignore him!

Here is the top end of the trends from my free analysis guide yesterday…

Address Unknown; slap bang top of the trends!

ADDRESS UNKNOWN, the only horse to score full marks for the race on my trends analysis.

He was also well in the picture on the Dosage trends…

Address Unknown sitting happily in 1 of the green zones…

Even on the pace/draw analysis he was strong given that he had a prime slot on Chester’s tight and turning track…

Sweet draw…

It was a fine example, for those that were not familiar with the race guides, of how an NTF analysis guide works, albeit one that was poorly executed by myself!!

It is frustrating when the answer is staring you in the face after a couple of hours of solid research and you choose to ignore it….frustrating I tell ye!!

Hopefully some of you managed to find ADDRESS UNKNOWN from the analysis…

Ben (NTF)

Is Countrywide Flame a worthy Chester Cup fav?

A small deviation from myself onto the flat stuff today. Even for a National Hunt lover like myself I do actually enjoy the tight and turning ‘greyhound track’ that is Chester. I especially enjoy the challenge of working out the 2m 2f 147yds Chester Cup Handicap. Hell the Champion Hurdle 3rd currently tops the market so it kinda has a National Hunt feel to it anyway!

The race has proven a good foil for my analysis through the years so it would have been rude of me to overlook it today.

You can download the full analysis guide from the following link…

>>> NTF Chester Cup Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy punting however you decide to put the guide to use

Ben (NTF)

Dawn Approach; Derby certainty?

It was incredibly hard not to be impressed by Dawn Approach’s 2000 Guineas romp. The bookies were impressed, so impressed in fact that he was slashed across the board into rock solid 7/4 favourite, Coral & Stan James have him even shorter at 6/4.

But what do the Dosage figures tell us?

In case you didn’t know Dosage is a pedigree analysis method that I utilize to help me ‘Narrow The Field‘ in the major National Hunt and Flat races. I won’t go into the deep and dirty details about it here but if you do want to learn more I have a FREE NTF guide on the subject that you can download when you sign up to the FREE NTF service.

Here is the Dosage profile of Jim Bolger’s unbeaten colt…

DAWN APPROACH – DP = 2-4-8-2-0 | Total = (16) | DI = 1.67 | CD = 0.38

Before we get stuck into the Derby I think it is prudent to highlight the fact that DAWN APPROACH was a very snug fit on the figures for the 2000 Guineas whereas his main opponent in the market, the Richard Hannon trained TORONADO, most certainly was not. So much so that Toronado was classed as a ‘Dosage Red’ contender by myself. SKY LANTERN, the winner of the 1000 Guineas, was a snug fit for her race as well and 1 of only 4 runners that sat comfortably in the Dosage Green zone.

Dosage isn’t a method that always hits the nail on the head but for the first 2 Classics of the 2013 flat season it was a solid pointer.

From A Dosage viewpoint what does it take to win the Epsom Derby?

I personally take the past 15 winners of any given race to source the Dosage trends. Here are the main Dosage trends (there are a few more sub-trends I also utilize) for the Epsom Derby…

DP = 12/15 had 20 points or more in their DP

DI = 12/15 had a DI between 1.56 & 0.78

CD = 14/15 had a CD of 0.46 or below | 11/15 had a CD of 0.28 or below

DPA = 12/15 fitted into 1 of the 3 DPA angles (20+ | PATB | DQ)

How does that relate to Dawn Approach?

DP = He doesn’t quite land in this zone

DI = Again he just misses out on this zone

CD = He fits into the wider stats but not quite into the stronger area

DPA = He doesn’t fit into one of these groups

In summary I wouldn’t say he was an ideal fit on this angle. He isn’t miles wide of the mark by any stretch but he does go from being a ‘snug fit’ for the 2000 Guineas to a ‘not ideal’ fit for the Epsom Derby. If we look at last years Guineas & Derby winner CAMELOT he was a ‘snug fit’ for both events and duly obliged in both contests. 

There is obviously the chance that Dawn Approach is a long way clear of his opposition in terms of class and a few poor fits on the Dosage side won’t stop him from reigning supreme. I personally use other methods to analyse a race, in conjunction with Dosage, and I would expect him to score highly on those angles (hell he might be so far ahead on other angles that I will have to overlook his Dosage foibles!!) but the fact he falls on the ‘less than ideal side’ here would, at the very least, be a slight concern. This certainly ranks as an area for anyone trying to find any holes in what so far looks like a bulletproof 3yo.

I wouldn’t be resigning this years 2000 Guineas winner to the Derby Dosage scrapheap, far from it, but he certainly doesn’t hold the strongest Dosage credentials for the race and there are sure to be a few other more suitable Dosage candidates lining up at Epsom on the 1st of June…

Ben – (NTF).

.

A ‘Firm’ favourite from the 80′s!

The first 2 British Classics of the 2013 flat season flashed into the formbooks this weekend (already?!?) and although I gave them my full attention I did also have my ’1 to follow brain’ fully tuned on the jumping stuff at Uttoxeter & Hexham.

Today’s ’1 to follow’ horse ran in the race sponsored by the good folks that make up the Uttoxeter Twitterati…

NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: FIRM ORDER…

FIRM ORDER (P Webber) – 2nd in 3m Class 4 Nvc’s Hcp Chase at Uttoxeter (4.15) – Saturday 4th May

Paul Webber’s 8yo was having his 2nd start since his winter break and connections wasted no time in sticking him back over fences now the new season has rumbled into action. The Winged Love gelding had a minor battle for the lead over the first few fences but once he jumped to the front over the 5th fence he looked much happier and Denis O’Regan went about trying to use the horse’s quick jumping to stretch the others. He did his best to burn them off from the front and it was only jumping the last that he gave way to the slightly more experienced Patsy Finnegan, going down by just over a length in the end to the Alan King horse. Despite the defeat he still equalled his best ever RPR figure (123) and also recorded his best Proform speed figure over fences (60 – previous best was 53). There was plenty to like in this performance and his name was firmly planted in my notebook…

So where to now for Firm Order?

Firm Order is still a maiden over fences after 7 starts so in theory there are plenty of options available to him. His mark of 112 looks pretty workable especially considering that he won 2 handicap hurdles from slightly higher marks (116 & 115) and he looks to have the size and scope to reach higher marks over the larger obstacles. I’m slightly of the opinion that he is maybe a better animal going right-handed as he did give the impression on Saturday that he has the tendency to float over to his right whilst jumping his fences. A look at his RH & LH splits maybe also hints at that….

Form going Right-Handed – 98154148U446

Form going Left-Handed – 52316PPF2

That clearly isn’t rock solid evidence but 2 of his 3 wins have come going Right-Handed and 3 of his 4 non-completions have come going Left-Handed. Hardly conclusive but there are hints there and I did see a few right-handed jumps at left-handed Uttoxeter.

What is a bit more conclusive is the fact that he does perform better on Good or better ground…

Form on Good or better – 981151648PFU2

Form on Good to Soft or worse – 5234P446

All 3 career wins have come on Good or better and the signs are that he likes to hear his hooves rattle.

He also seems to enjoy the challenge of undulating tracks as he is 0/10 on flat tracks compared to 3/11 on more undulating tracks.

His pedigree suggests he has a decent slab of stamina influences in him so 3m+ trips on testing tracks are potentially where we will see the best of him.

Connections evidently kept him away from the testing winter ground and now we eventually have the decent weather (where have you been this past year!!!) the signs are that he will be breaking his chasing duck sooner rather than later.

Firm Order ideal conditions – Good or better ground | May just be more at home going right-handed | Trips around 3 miles | Probably better away from flat tracks and where there is emphasis on stamina

.

Ben – (NTF).

.