Another weekend past and another National in the form book. One horse clearly springs to mind from the weekends action and that is a certain AURORAS ENCORE! Since he was highlighted by myself as the solitary eye-catcher from the weekends action back on March the 12th he has won a valuable pot at Haydock at 12/1 (BFSP 16.69) and ran his heart out in the Scottish National to finish a head second at 25/1 (BFSP 40.02!). Auroras I salute you boy.

Auroras Encore does not make the ‘to follow list’ today, there was very little ‘under the radar’ about his run on Saturday, however, I did note a few down the field runners from the weekends action and here are the 2 main NTF to follow horses -

GALAXY ROCK (J J O’Neill) – Saturday – 3.25 Ayr– PU in the 4m Scottish Grand National

Despite finishing pulled-up I thought the run of the 8yo was in fact quite promising. He travelled well throughout the contest and looked to be moving smoothly into contention as they approached 5 out. He jumped that well enough but as they turned for home the petrol gauge began to flicker on empty and any challenge he was set to mount evaporated quickly. He has shown staying capabilities in the past but it is interesting to note that on both occassions he has run over 3m5f or further he has finished pulled-up. The first of those P’s was gained in the Welsh National on heavy ground so I’m inclined to forgive him that run although here at Ayr there should have been no ground quibbles and I’m very much of the mindset 4 miles is beyond his stamina threshold. There must also be a train of though that suggests he is maybe a touch high in the handicap. He currently sits on a mark of 144 and his form figures when racing off marks in the 140′s+ read P-4-P. I’m slightly in 2 minds over this issue although I do believe that if he is not above the ceiling of his abilities he is probably right at the top of them; i.e. he could win off this mark but dropping a few lbs certainly would not go amiss. If they can find a race in the 3m2f – 3m5f range on decent ground then I could not rule him out off his current mark. The important thing here is not to get distracted by the ‘pulled-up’ aspect of this run, he was travelling very well under the champion jockey until his stamina reserves bottomed out and once it was clear he was not going to have a say in the finish McCoy eased up considerably on the Heron Island gelding. This run suggests there are still valuable races in him yet and it would be folly to dismiss him on the back of this performance.

Galaxy Rock ideal conditions - Good to soft or better ground – 3m to 3m5f races – Running within 30 days of last start

RUSSIAN WAR (G Elliott) – Saturday – 4.00 Ayr – 5th in the 2m5f Handicap Hurdle

The 9yo was looking for back to back victories in this race although running off a mark of 10lbs higher than last season made that a very difficult task. To be honest life has been tough for the horse since landing this race in 2011. He had 3 failed attempts over fences before reverting back to the smaller obstacles and has found himself either too far up the handicap or out of his depth. If we look closer at his races we see he has hardly been put in any of the 4 hurdle contests he has taken part in and has gained comments of ‘Held up in rear, still last approaching final flight, stayed on run-in, never going pace to get into contention’ – ‘Held up in rear, poor 6th when blundered 10th, tailed off when pulled up before next’ – ‘Held up in last trio, mistake 3rd, some progress into midfield when mistake 2 out and reminders, never a threat’ and ‘In rear, not fluent 2nd, headway when hit 9th, never near leaders’. With this has come a dropping handicap mark and one would expect a few more pounds to be shed from his mark after Saturdays performance. If kept on the go over the summer this makes him a very interesting proposition indeed. Take a look at his form figures in the month of June, July & August – 4-2-1-1-1-4-1. A slipping handicap mark coming into a time of year he enjoys on ground that should suit him well; this makes the talented 9yo a horse of interest.

Russian War ideal conditions - Good to soft or better ground – A handicap mark of around 140 or less

Which runners over the weekend caught your eye the most?

Drop me a comment below with your biggest eye-catcher from the weekends racing.

The Perfect Punter – by Dave Farrar

Enjoy the world of gambling and are looking for a good read? Look no further than The Perfect Punter.

Dave’s journey in this book begins where it all first went wrong. The women he loved upped and left him and Dave then embarked upon a disastrous 6 months (yes, 6 MONTHS!) losing streak where everything he gambled on went wrong. Instead of giving up completely Dave vowed to set the record straight, get disciplined and win back the money he had lost in that treacherous 6 month spell.

The Perfect Punter takes you through an entertaining journey around the sporting world as Dave Farrar delves into the heart of each bet he is about to make, leaving no stone unturned in his quest to become ‘The Perfect Punter’.

Although these journeys are exceptionally entertaining and a joy to follow it is my opinion that the real strength of this book is the home truths that Dave spills out, the thoughts that all gamblers/punters/bettors have but rarely admit to. Trust me, when you read this book you will regularly find yourself saying ‘I know exactly what you mean Dave’. You may not admit it to others but all punters have these thoughts, it may even make you a better punter if, like Dave, you were to admit to having these thoughts!

All in all this is a seriously entertaining read and one that all gamblers (serious, fun or a bit of both) will enjoy – The Perfect Punter by Dave Farrar

I can’t leave without giving you one of my favourite Dave insights from the book -

“Then I remembered a magazine article in which Francis Rossi of Status Quo said he started every day with a glass of lemon juice. I was following advice on equilibrium from a man with little or no septum. Brilliant.”

I’m sure we would all be better off if we followed equilibrium advice from the legend that is Francis Rossi

NTF Rating – 5 out of 5

Grab a copy from Amazon – The Perfect Punter

Ben (NTF)

ps. I’m currently finishing the first FREE NTF flat guide that will be sent out to members of the FREE NTF list tomorrow (Tuesday 24th). To make sure you also get the first FREE guide simply pop your name and email address in the form at the top right of the site.

Ayr’s Scottish Grand National Meeting is always a richly contested affair with a plethora of raiders making the trip from South of the border.

But who are the trainers we should be focused on and under which circumstances should we be looking to side with their runners?

Do the South send enough firepower up to plunder all of the big prizes or do the North keep something up their sleeves especially for these 2 days to fend off the southern raiders?

Lets take a look at a clutch of trainers (North & South based) that we should keep a keen eye on over Friday and Saturday and exactly where they have excelled at in recent seasons -

Figures from seasons 2006 – 2011 and sourced from the excellent ProForm database

Ferdy Murphy

This appears to be a meeting that good old Ferdy targets every season and his overall figures stack up well -

7/32 | 22% S/R | +£49.87 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/32 | 34 % S/R

When we dig a little deeper into those overall figures things start to get really interesting. Take a look at the record of his horses running at this meeting within 14 days of their last start -

Murphy runners returning to track with 14 days of last run (at Scottish National meeting)

6/10 | 60% S/R | +£56.90 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/10 | 80% S/R

Wow! 6 of his 7 winners can be found using this simple filter. The fact that 8 of the 10 qualifiers won or placed suggests this is a well devised plan on the go from Mr Murphy.

Last year he had 2 such qualifiers, both in the same race (I’M DELILAH & BEGGARS CAP) with the outsider of the pair BEGGARS CAP winning at Betfair SP 18.58!

I highlighted this intriguing angle on the blog last year and Ferdy came good for us then; can he do it again?

Nicky Henderson

The Seven Barrows trainer has the most victories of any trainer in recent season’s and he generally sends up a sturdy looking team to do battle. Here are his overall figures -

9/45 | 20% S/R | -£2.75 BFLSP – Win & Place 17/45 | 38% S/R

Backing all his runners would have left you with a minor level stakes loss but there are areas where we can concentrate our efforts -

• 8 of his 9 winners came over 21f or less
• 8 of his 9 winners started in the top 3 of the market
• All 9 winners were aged 7 or less
• 6 of his 9 winners finished in the top 2 on their last start
• 6 of his 9 winners were ridden by Barry Geraghty
• A P McCoy is 2 winners from 3 rides at the meeting for Henderson (placed on other ride)

Also pay particular attention to his bumper runners -

Henderson Bumper runners at the Scottish National meeting

2/3 | 67% S/R | +£1.97

The profits may not be life changing but thats not the reason I highlighted the angle. What I wanted to point out was that 1 of those winners was the mighty SPRINTER SACRE, who won the race comfortably in 2010. He isn’t afraid to take future stars on the lengthy trip up to Ayr….

Jim Goldie

Goldie has stepped up the amount of runners he takes to this meeting in recent seasons and it can pay to follow his string -

5/23 | 22% S/R | +£52.60 BFLSP – Win & Place 9/23 | 39% S/R

• He has a decent record in Novice races – 3/7 | 43% S/R | +£36.80BFLSP
• 4 of his 5 winners came over hurdles

Pauline Robson

The Northumberland based trainer is very select with her runners from her small string but when she makes the effort to come to this meeting it is worth taking note -

3/8 | 38% S/R | +£29.42 BFLSP – Win & Place 3/8 | 38% S/R

Nigel Twiston Davies

The ‘Twister’ doesn’t send as many as you may think to the 2 day meeting but the select few of his string that have made the trip more than hold their own -

3/9 | 33% S/R | +£12.65 BFLSP – Win & Place 4/9 | 44% S/R

• All 3 winners ran within the past 28 days
• All 3 winners came over 3m+
• All 3 finished in the top 2 on their last start

Paul Nicholls

The champion trainer is an interesting one at this meeting. He sends plenty on the long trip but overall his runners have been under-performing and backing them all would have left quite a dent in your betting bank -

7/62 | 11% S/R | -£40.78 BFLSP – Win & Place 27/62 | 44% S/R

We can tighten things up a touch for Nicholls and look at the areas where most of these winners have come from -

• 6 of the 7 winners were ridden by Ruby Walsh
• 7 of the 7 winners had been off the track for 30 days+
• 6 of the 7 winners started as SP favourite
• 6 of the 7 winners were aged 4 or 5
• 6 of the 7 winners started in the top 2 of the market on their last start

If you can pull all of the above factors together then you stand a great chance of finding a Nicholls winner at this meeting -

Nicholls trained | Ridden by Walsh | Fav | Off track for 30 days+ | Aged 4 or 5 | Top 2 in market LTO

4/5 | 80% S/R | +£6.15 BFLSP – Win & Place 5/5 | 100% S/R

Granted these are pretty stringent rules and won’t leave you with many qualifiers at all but at least you have a solid chance of a Nicholls winner at the meeting!!

Although I would never suggest taking these type of stats as gospel they are a good pointer as to which yards are likely to be targeting the meeting and bringing some lively ammo with them for an Ayr spring-time raid.

Best of luck if you plan to get involved over the 2 day Ayr Scottish Grand National meeting (Friday 20th and Saturday 21st of April).

Ben (NTF)