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Monthly Archives: February 2012
NTF Analysis – Kempton, Fairyhouse & Newcastle – 25-02-12 Members Post
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NTF 3 to follow from the weekend…
Invictus? Massini’s Maguire? Riverside Theatre? Rubi Light? Zaidpour? Giles Cross? All winners at the weekend but will we see any of them gracing the winners enclosure at Cheltenham or Aintree?
It was an enthralling and important weekend of racing that now sits firmly in the form book, with a number of runners (the winners and the stragglers) having their sights steadfastly set on the impending Cheltenham Festival as well as the marathon slog that is known to all as the Aintree Grand National.
There were plenty of potential eye-catchers for me on both Saturday and Sunday and here are the 3 main horses that went in my notebook -
BAILE ANRAI (I Williams) – Saturday – 1.50 Ascot – Faller in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase – 3 miles
The fall at the 3rd last apart I thought this was a particularly eye-catching performance from the 8yo. He was far from out of contention when just reaching for the 3rd from home and in the main he had jumped solidly, even making up considerable ground at some of his fences. He is a large, well-built gelding and he looks made for the chasing game so it is slightly surprising to see 2 falls on his chasing CV already. Interestingly both these falls have come in Grade 2 company so it could be he simply finds jumping at this level consistently for a full race just at the top end of his powers. Saying that he didn’t look out of place in this field and I’m sure he is more than capable of picking up lesser races lower down the chasing tree. He made his seasonal debut in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow were he was arguably one of the only runners in the field to mildly threaten impressive winner Fingal Bay. He was only 6 lengths in arrears that day and it was a yawning 37 lengths back to the rest of the pack; again suggesting that although maybe not a Grade 1/2 animal he is better than your run of the mill contender. It’s interesting to note that on his debut point-to-point start he finished 6th (beaten 11 lengths) to Quito De La Roque. I don’t expect this lad to be a major player at the top levels but I do think there are races in him; one to keep an eye going forward.
DUNRAVEN STORM (P Hobbs) – Saturday – 3.35 Ascot – 4th in the Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – 2m3f
The 7yo was having his 2nd start back after a small injury sustained in last seasons Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and similar to his comeback run at Taunton he stayed on well at the end without really looking like troubling the horses in front of him. I had him marked down as a novice chaser for the season but one assumes that they are holding back until next season before unleashing him over the larger obstacles (makes sense considering he missed first half of season). This 2m3f trip may well have just been on the sharp side for him, he is by Presenting and has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so the fact he was able to keep in contention (to a certain degree) tells me he has lost none of his ability. He won over trips of around 2 miles as a novice but that was against inferior opposition and I’m convinced his future is over trips of 2m5f and further; if he sticks to these longer trips then he is very much a horse of interest. He could well have a handicap hurdle in him off his mark of 140 but I see his long term future as that of a staying chaser.
ALFIE SHERRIN (J J O’Neil) – Saturday – 3.55 Haydock – 5th in the Class 2 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle – 3m
Was the 9yo ever really put into the race? Not really. Is he on a handy hurdle/chase mark? Yes. Are connections possibly planning a spring target for him? I think so. What that target is though is anybody’s guess! The ground was unlikely to have suited him at Haydock on Saturday (heavy) and he wasn’t given a hard race but he did catch the eye when staying on into 5th place. He is still very lightly raced (6 hurdle starts & 6 chase starts) and both his Hurdle mark (136) and Chase mark (130) look well within his compass. It has been reported in the past that he is difficult to train so its not hard to imagine that he will only be pushed when the time is right. That time is likely to be when the ground is riding good to soft or better and it may be prudent to keep an eye on where he is placed from now onwards…..
What are your thoughts on the weekends racing?
Who were the serious Cheltenham and Aintree contenders on show over the weekend?
Drop me a comment below and let me know who you will be keeping an eye on for future engagements; whether that be for one of the spring festivals or just in general.
Ben (NTF)
Beware of the ‘Twister’ Blinker….
Remember my ‘It can pay to be blinkered when it comes to McCain and Maguire…‘ Blog post?
It’s done alright since I highlighted it to you all hasn’t it?
3 runners - 2 winners and 1 placed
NODFORM RICHARD 3rd at 9/2 – RAILWAY DILLON 1st at 9/2 – SAGA DE TERCEY 1st at 15/8
The qualifiers don’t come along that often but it certainly pays to take heed when there is one taking to the track.
To get a refresher on the angle simply head back to the original post.
The 1st time blinkers angle is an area that I’ve researched thoroughly in recent weeks and there are plenty of areas of interest for us to take notice of.
Today I want to highlight to you all another strong trend that caught my eye, this time a trainer we should be looking to avoid when he reaches for the 1st time blinkers – Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Take a look at his figures for first time blinkers runners since 2006 -
Nigel Twiston-Davies runners wearing 1st time blinkers (2006 – present)
72 runners | 4 winners | 6% S/R | -£27.50 BFLSP (Win & Place – 20/78 | 28% S/R)
Slim pickings on the win front and not that much better on the win & place either. The facts are that the Gloucestershire based trainer struggles to land the prize when sending a horse to the track with first time blinkers on.
If we look a bit closer we can see that it is his handicap runners that we should particularly be looking to avoid -
55 runners | 2 winners | 4% S/R | -£34.11 BFLSP (Win & Place – 12/55 | 23% S/R)
Essentially I would want plenty other factors to be in my favour before putting my money down on a Twiston-Davies first time blinker wearer.
There are numerous other ’1st time blinkers’ angle that we should be aware of (positive & negative) and I’ll be looking to highlight these over the coming weeks and months on the Blog.
*All figures sourced from the excellent ProForm database
NTF 1 to follow from the week
FIND A KEY (N Richards) – Tuesday – 1.50 Ayr – 2nd in the Class 4 Novices’ Hurdle
It’s been great to have the National Hunt game cranking back into top gear this week after it’s enforced ‘freeze’ break. There has been plenty of racing up here in Scotland and one horse in particular went in my notebook. That horse was the Nicky Richards trained Gelding FIND A KEY. To me he looks like your typical chasing type, biding his time over the smaller obstacles whilst he grows into his considerable frame. He bumped into a potentially very smart French recruit at Ayr on Tuesday and if we consider the fact that FIND A KEY will probably prove better over further in time then this was a solid run from the Definite Article gelding. He already makes the shape of a chaser at his obstacles and although he could easily take a hurdle race or two before he switches codes he looks for all the word a chaser in the making to me. This horse looks one for novice chases next season and he goes in the notebook with an eye firmly on the future.
Happy Punting – Ben (NTF)
Saturday 18/02/12 – NTF Members Post
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Newbury NTF Analysis – 17/02/12 – Members Post
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Owners Insight – More Frustration
He was fit, he was ready to hit the track running and then Brrrrrrr… the freezing weather scuppers the OSCARA DARA comeback!!
In today’s post owner Phil Boyle brings us up to date on the latest trials and tribulations from camp Oscara….
Hello all
Last time, I brought my ownership story up to date (almost). After a couple of months of wishing for decent weather so that Oscara Dara was not held up in getting ready to make his seasonal debut, we were finally ready to go.
Of course having been kind during the training period, the weather decided not to be so kind when it came to actually having a run. Two weeks of entries frustration ensued as we were entered in races on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and two more on Sunday. Of those the only race that actually took place was the very first one and we did not declare at the overnight stage as we preferred some of the later options! What a mess!
This kind of weather makes for a load of work for the me as the racing manager of our partnership as I need to contact owners for badge requirements, contact racecourses to arrange badges that we never actually need, speak to the trainer regularly to revise running plans and issue communications to all the owners to advise them of new entries and changes in plan!
These communications are all positively pleasant however when you contrast them with having to contact all the owners as I did earlier this week to tell them that it is no longer the weather that is holding us up but the horse. Oscara Dara has not been moving as well as usual in his work and Nicky Henderson and the vets felt that it was something they should treat rather than hoping Oscara Dara would recover on his own. Hopefully only a bit of soreness or a slight muscle strain, but giving him medication means that he cannot run for a couple of weeks even if it does the job and clears up the problem.
As you might imagine we are all absolutely desperate to get racing having sat patiently for 12 months, but it seems we need to sit tight for at least another couple of weeks!
I hope all these stories of woe have not put off anyone who might have considered ownership. Even with all of the problems, I would not swap it. It is great to feel a little bit on the inside of a sport that you really enjoy and the highs make it all worthwhile. I sat in front of the TV yelling on Saddlers Storm in the Foxhunters race at Leopardstown this afternoon. Trained in Ireland by Tony Martin, I have no involvement in the horse at all, but he is Oscara Dara’s half-brother and so I was chuffed to bits when he finished second!
In future articles, I will look at the differences in style between a big trainer and a small one (having experienced both) and I also want to tell you a story that illustrates just why Anthony McCoy is a multiple champion jockey.
Incidentally, if these articles have whetted anyone’s appetite for ownership, why not leave a comment below. No promises, but if there were a whole bunch of people that wanted to get involved on some level, then I would be prepared to at least look into setting something up.
All the best
Phil
Thanks as always to Phil and lets hope a fit OSCARA DARA and some non-frozen racetracks meet very soon….
Ben (NTF)
NTF 3 to follow from the weekend…
It was Scottish Cheltenham Trials day at Musselburgh on Saturday but will we see any of the winners or placed runners making a serious impact at the Festival in March?
To be honest I would be surprised if I witnessed any outstanding Cheltenham contenders on the day but that’s not to say there weren’t eye-catchers aplenty amongst the competitive fields.
Here are the three main horses that went in my notebook after the days racing -
SAMSTOWN (L Russell) – Saturday – 1.30 Musselburgh – 3rd in the 2m4f Class 4 Novices’ Hurdle
The 5yo was making his hurdling debut here and despite being on his toes in the paddock and taking a while to warm up in the early stages of the race he did finish with somewhat of a rattle once he and jockey Peter Buchanan straightened up for home. The Kingsalsa gelding wasn’t the most fluent over his obstacles but this was his first taste of jumping in public and we can take it he will have learned plenty from the experience. It’s also in my mind that the track was maybe a touch on the sharp side for him as was the 2m4f trip and it could be that he will be better suited to a more galloping track and/or a slightly further trip. It’s important to not be fooled by his close proximity to the winner as that one was heavily eased once the race was put to bed. It is, however, more prudent to look at the fact he got within a length of the decent Donald McCain runner-up EBANOUR, a horse that has some decent experience under his belt. All in all this was a decent debut performance and this interestingly bred 5yo should have races in him somewhere over the smaller obstacles. probably on a more suitable track.
MOONLIGHT DRIVE (J Quinn) – Saturday – 2.35 Musselburgh – 3rd in the 3m Class 3 Stayers Handicap Hurdle
The favourite put in an untidy round of jumping and looked to be struggling to make any sort of impact as the travelled down the back-straight for the last time. Credit must go to jockey Dougie Costello for keeping the 6yo interested enough to be able to produce him at the last flight still in with a chance and they even managed to get their heads in front for a brief moment on the run-in. It was a short lived moment, however, as the 2 horses alongside had more fight left in the tank and MOONLIGHT DRIVE quickly settled for third spot. I’m convinced the Oscar gelding lost his race in the first 2 miles of this contest and he simply had little left to battle to the line with. Again I have a feeling the track played against him and he will be seen to better effect on a track with a more galloping configuration. He definitely has races in him off his current hurdles mark but I would be equally as interested in him if he went back over fences (2nd on his chasing debut at Market Rasen in November). His point to point form looks solid and is very much a horse of interest for the immediate future, whether that is back over fences or staying over timber.
UBI ACE (T Walford) – Saturday – 3.45 Musselburgh – 2nd in the 2m Scottish County Hurdle
This was an outstanding performance from the 6yo for a number of reasons. Jockey Robert Walford had his mount in the firing line for most of the contest and the top weight held off numerous challengers in the home-straight before succumbing to the lesser weighted winner Stormy Weather in the final 100yds (Ubi Ace was giving 21lb to the winner). In the main the runner-up put in a solid round of jumping and was able to make ground at a number of his flights; a trait that should see him well when he makes the transition to the larger obstacles. He may just be coming to his limit in the hurdling sphere although his battling spirit means he will always be giving his all and I would not be surprised to see him grab, if not another hurdling victory, at least a place or 2 in some valuable handicaps. The real reason I have him as an eye-catcher, however, is to put him in the note-book as a chaser to follow for next season. He looks to have plenty of size and scope for the chasing game and trainer Tim Walford has never hidden the fact he is excited about this one jumping a fence. More hurdling glory is far from beyond him but chasing is the real area of excitement for this lad.
What are your thoughts on the weekends racing?
Were there any serious Cheltenham contenders on show at Musselburgh at the weekend?
Drop me a comment below and let me know who you will be keeping an eye on for future engagements.
Ben (NTF)
Leopardstown NTF Analysis – 12-02-12 – Members Only Post
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Ante-Post Analysis – Arkle Chase – NTF Members Post
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