Holding out for a hero like Bonnie?

It was relatively light in terms of National Hunt action this weekend although high class contests from Perth on Gold Cup day and Auteuil on French Champion Hurdle day made sure that quality more than made up for lack of quantity.

There were a few horses that caught my eye from those 2 Sunday meetings but my main area of focus today comes from the action at Stratford on Saturday evening…

NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: I NEED A HERO…

I NEED A HERO (S Humphrey) – 2nd in the Class 3 3m 4f Handicap chase at Stratford (6.45) – Saturday 8th June

There was a decent enough prize on offer for this marathon chase and Sarah Humphrey’s 8yo just failed to grab it by just over 2 lengths. He traveled sweetly out the back for the majority of this contest, tackling his fences in a neat and economical fashion. Approaching 2 out he looked to have the race sewn up but it’s a long enough run between 2 out and the last fence at Stratford and it was clear the stamina gauge was starting to flicker near empty somewhere between those final 2 fences. It could be that 3m4f is just too far for him, it was the longest trip he had attempted in his 16 career starts, but this was also his first start since November last year and it could well have been a combination of the two (trip and first start for 7 months) that took its toll as push came to shove. Nevertheless it was a pleasing and eye-catching performance and enough to get me interested going forward.

So where to now for I NEED A HERO?

First things first, his handicap mark is now right where it should be to get him back in the winners enclosure. He is currently on OR113 and his 2 chase wins have come form OR112 & OR117, he has been as high as OR125 but that is beyond him and OR113 is much more realistic. Yesterday he recorded an RPR of 117 which equals his 2nd best career mark over fences and is a clear indicator he is coming to the boil and is ripe for striking.

I assume it has been a deliberate ploy to keep him off the track over the winter as there are clear pointers to him being a summer lover…

Form between May & Aug – 1313322P14

Form between Oct & Apr – 6P5054

(He is yet to run in September but I would class that in the first group, May – Aug, if you know what I mean!?)

He 3 career wins have come on GOOD ground so that would correlate with the above (form on Good to Soft or worse is 5P03) and we definitely want to see him on Good or better ground; providing we get a proper summer that should be easy enough for him to find.

There are also indicators that he is happier in smaller fields…

Form in fields of 10 or less – 41321413352

Form in fields of 11+ – 05P6P

At the level he is operating at he should be able to find those sorts of openings quite readily.

If we look at his form between May & Aug on Good or better ground in fields of 10 or less we get the following form figures – 23141231 – there should be plenty opportunities for him in the coming weeks and with him sitting on a favourable mark I would be surprised if he isn’t in the winners enclosure at least once before the summer is up.

I Need A Hero ideal conditions – Between May & Aug | Good or better ground | On or around his current mark of 113 | Fields of 10 or less

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Others worth a mention…

The French racing on Sunday was chocked full of British raiders that we all know and love but there was one runner who, despite now being trained by Nicky Henderson, won’t be familiar to a lot of you, however, the signs are he could become a serious player once he starts his career over on these shores…

BLUE FASHION (N Henderson) – 4th at Auteuil on Sunday (09-06-13)

This 4yo son of Scorpion quite simply look a chaser in the making. He looks to have the frame to make a serious impact over the larger obstacles and one must think that was foremost in the mind of Nicky Henderson and connections when they purchased him. Nicky Henderson has already stated that he is a ‘horse for next year’ and with some serious form already in the book he looks an exciting prospect once he strengthens up over the summer. One to keep in mind for next season for sure…

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Tic, Tic, Tic, Tic BOOM!

In the immortal words of the Fresh Prince…

Yo back up now and give the Scu room,

The Problematic is lit and he’s about to go BOOM! 

Most long term NTF readers will know I’ve had this lad pin-pointed at the Perth Gold Cup since he ran a decent 4th at the Aintree Grand National meeting back in April. Yesterday PROBLEMA TIC did the business for us in magnificent style! It was one of those races where from an early stage I was confident I would be collecting. The conditions were correct, he was back going right-handed for the first time in 10 runs and Pipe had brought him along sweetly since his early exit in the Scottish Grand National. It should have also been noted that Pipe was making the rather long trip to Perth with only the 1 horse; this was no raiding party it was a calculated and pinpoint one horse assault! Double figures prices about this lad on Saturday night were too good to be true and needless to say I snapped them up. My throat has almost recovered from the excesses of cheering him home down the Perth home-straight (beer helped quench the rasping throat!!)!

But what now for him? In honesty it mostly depends on what the handicapper does on the back of yesterdays win. His performance yesterday unquestionably backed up my assessment that he is better going Right-handed (RH form now reads 114211) and with Good or better ground essential for him to run to his best I guess a race like the Summer Plate at right-handed Market Rasen must come under consideration. It is over a slightly shorter trip and a potentially tougher/larger field so it would not be as prime a spot as the Perth Gold Cup but one would imagine it is in connections thoughts. For me, though, a lot depends on how the handicapper reacts to yesterday’s win…

As the old adage goes, however, he owes me nothing…

If, like me, you now have Boom Shake the Room stuck in your bonce then go on, indulge yourself…

Ben – (NTF).

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Badly Drawn Horse?!?

Plenty of National Hunt action to tuck into over the weekend just past, none of it of any real great shakes but nonetheless a few runners going into my trusty notebook.

For today’s post I’ve plumped for an all the way winner at Kelso who should have a bit of juice in him yet from a very lowly handicap mark…

NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: MINSTALAD…

MINSTALAD (Mrs K Tutty) – 1st in the Class 5 3m2f handicap chase at Kelso (2.40) – Sunday 26th May

This 9yo was making his first start over fences out of points/hunter chases and put in a sterling front-running display to hold off the pack. He looks a safe and sound jumper from the front and I didn’t count any real errors as he bounded his way to victory. As the race started to reach the business end he was actually passed by the eventually 3rd & 4th but he kept digging, kept jumping and kept finding and quite easily got himself back into a commanding position. He idled slightly up the hill but he was always holding them and it may have just been that he got a little tired, which is fair enough being this was only his 2nd start in recent times and coming from a small yard he may have just needed the run to sharpen him. It was an average race but he did it well and his attitude and jumping prowess were the main attraction to me.

So where to now for MINSTALAD?

Trainer Karen Tutty only has a handful of horses in the National Hunt sphere and this 9yo looks like he could well be a cut above her usual clutch of jumpers.This was only his 2nd start for his new yard and the booking of Brian Toomey was a positive move for sure and hopefully he keeps the ride going forward from here. MINSTALAD was running from a mark of 73 yesterday (technically 70 if we take into account the jockeys claim) and you would hope he doesn’t go up too much for winning in this company by 1 length (even though I reckon he had plenty more than 1 length up his sleeve). I doubt he is a horse that is capable of running well from marks in the 100/110′s but he has a bit of a way to go before reaching that and if placed correctly he could well fire in a few more wins from lowly marks over the summer.

From a breeding slant he is a horse that holds plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree and he utilized them extremely well yesterday. He has a solid, rumble along galloping nature and very much looks the kind that just winds it up from the front and keeps motoring along at the same pace in a “try and pass me guys” type of attitude.  Galloping tracks clearly suit him to a tee, where he can get into a steady rhythm  and grind along at his own rate, and those type of tracks are probably the ideal place for him to find more winning opportunities.

Minstalad ideal conditions – 3m+ Handicap Chases | Galloping tracks

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Summer Stunners…

As some of you may have noticed there was an NTF Summer Stunner running yesterday; Quinsman in the 5.20 at Uttoxeter. He didn’t have his conditions though so it wasn’t a bet for myself. Fast ground over 2 miles really isn’t ideal for him and although he jumped well enough at the start he just couldn’t go with the others when the pace increased around halfway. He did plug on though and as mentioned in my guide he has stamina in his pedigree and I would want to see him over at least 2m4f, if not even given a bash at 3 miles. If he does manage to pop in somewhere over the summer I would suspect it will be at a rather tasty price…

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Site issues over the weekend…

My sincere apologies for the site being down over the weekend. I couldn’t access it on Sunday at all to upload anything which is bloody annoying as I had planned to cover both Irish Guineas for you all. The guide was done and ready to go but the site had decided it was partaking in some Bank Holiday shenanigans!?! Added to that I also couldn’t get into my email program to send out the guide as an attachment!!

The frustrating thing about this was the fact Just The Judge was the only runner to score full marks on the extended trends analysis!!

For what it’s worth (not much now, I know!!) I have attached the Irish 1000 Guineas guide below…

>>> Irish 1000 Guineas NTF Analysis Guide

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**Brand New NTF Sister Site: Badly Drawn Horse!**

As some of you may have noticed me mention I was in the process of setting up a new Flat sister site to NTF. Well it’s done!

The new site is called ‘Badly Drawn Horse‘ and will eventually be the place I host all of the flat stuff that I analyse. It also has it’s own theme that concentrates on a particular zone of the flat game and I will hopefully be blogging on there on a regular basis.

I would be delighted if you would pop over and have a gander at the new site, the first post is already live and if you like my ’1 to follow’ posts them I’m pretty sure you will enjoy the theme of BDH as well.

>>>Visit Badly Drawn Horse and check out the inaugural post 

By the way you don’t need to sign up to any new mailing list or anything like that as I will tell you all about it through the FREE NTF Service. If the new site isn’t your thing then that’s cool, it won’t distract from NTF in any way at all .

Ben – (NTF).

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A Crook. Although not the same kind as the one that trains Mutanawwer!!

It was relatively quiet couple of days on the National Hunt front this weekend and in truth my notebook stayed shut most of the time. The flat action, as is to be expected at this time of the year, cranked up a notch and I must say that Farhh was hugely impressive in winning the Lockinge on Saturday. As mentioned on my NTF Facebook page he was unbeaten when returning from a break of 121 days+ and after his G1 romp on Saturday that still remains the case (4 from 4).

As far as runners to follow go there wasn’t much to get my radar twitching, however, there is one horse I want to share with you all who could turn out to be a major player at a minor yard…

NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: MUTANAWWER…

MUTANAWWER (A Crook) – 2nd in the Bumper at Marken Rasen (5.00) – Sunday 19th May

As far as a bumper on a Sunday at Market Rasen goes I have a feeling this one may turn out to be better than a standard run of the mill sort of race. The front two pulled upwards of 10 lengths clear of the others and the 3rd and 4th placed runners look like decent animals in their own right. Second placed Mutanawwer looks one that has plenty speed in his pedigree whilst the winner Make Me A Fortune, who was under a sustained A P McCoy drive, is packed full of stamina influences. In a tight contest (it went to a photo-finish) it was just the stamina traits of Make Me A Fortune that held out and although he is sure to be worthy of following over timber, especially when stepped up in trip, it is the runner up that particularly caught my eye. He traveled sweetly throughout most of the race and looked to be all over the winner as they both pulled away in the home straight, however, Make Me A Fortune’s stamina started to really kick in within the final furlong and the Crook horse just couldn’t quite hang on.

So where to now for MUTANAWWER?

It’s not that easy to pin-point exactly where he may turn up next but he looks more than capable of landing a bumper before heading over obstacles. It has to be said it wasn’t only the visual performance of Mutanawwer that caught my eye but also some of the stats connected with the yard.

Here are a couple worthy of mentioning…

Andy Crook doesn’t have the greatest record at Market Rasen – 0/23 in the past 5 years – so the fact this one all but landed in the winners enclosure had me interested.

Andy Crook’s bumper runners generally don’t win – 1/44 | 2% S/R | Win & Place 5/44 | 11% S/R (since start of 2008) – the fact that this only went down by a neck suggests he is one of the better bumper runners he has had in recent seasons.

Andy Crook’s runners (for whatever reason) perform better going left-handed than right-handed (Market R is right-handed) – L-Handed S/R is 7% compared to R-Handed S/R of 2% – again this is another indicator that this lad is potentially better than some of the recent runners Crook has had in the yard.

The fact MUTANAWWER was doing a few things that plenty others in the yard have failed to do simply added a bit more juice to his visually impressive performance on the track and again suggested that this lad has the potential to be a stable star.

With regards to where he could turn up next Sedgefield does look a potential for him as that is where Crook’s runners do perform at an eye-catching rate – 8/82 | 10% S/R | Win & Place 19/82 | 23% S/R.

On the breeding front (and specifically Dosage) the Red Ransom gelding holds plenty of influential sires (and, to a certain extent, dams) in his 4 generation pedigree and they give him a power-packed Dosage line of 6-10-25-2-1 | (DQ) | (44) | 1.84 | 0.41.

There are plenty of indicators that this 4yo has the credentials to be a well above average runner for the yard and he is well worthy of following.

*Stats sourced from the excellent Proform Database

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1 To Follow: Honorable mention…

Stratford held a valuable Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Sunday and for the second race in a row WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (P Nicholls) ran an eye-catching race in 2nd without actually quite managing to win or indeed make my to follow list. I’m in 2 minds whether he is in the grip of the handicapper from his 150 mark or if he is just at a stage of his career where he will continually find at least 1 too good for him every time. As such he remains in my peripheral vision, without me actually knowing what to do with him…

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Billie Magern & Problema Tic…

Judging by the number of emails, tweets and facebook comments I received plenty of you backed good old Billie Magern on his romp at Ludlow last week on the back of either my recent ‘ 1 to follow post’ or my FREE Summer Stunners guide. He was mightily impressive that day under what was essentially ideal conditions and there is every chance he could well follow up at some stage over the summer. It all really depends on how the handicapper reacts to his win and what mark he allocates when he reassesses him. Fingers crossed he doesn’t crucify him…

Problema Tic, another NTF 1 to follow runner, also took to the track last week. He turned up in a Class 3, 3 mile Handicap Hurdle at Aintree, not really the conditions I was marking him down as one to follow admittedly. I can only assume this was either a confidence booster after his early fall in the Scottish National or indeed a race to keep him sharp whilst at the same time protecting his chase mark. He was never really put into the contest (suggesting it was potentially just a run to keep him sharp) but he still remains as one to follow when getting his conditions back over fences.

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FREE NTF Summer Stunners guide…

My latest FREE NTF guide was released to members of the FREE NTF Service last week. To date there have been 2 qualifiers from the 12 highlighted runners, with both winning – Billie Magern at 9/2 & Trackmate at 14/1. Clearly I don’t expect it to keep firing at this rate (chance would be a fine thing!) but the guide has already proven its worth to followers of the Summer Jumping game and I would expect it to keep doing so throughout the summer.

You can still download this guide by popping your name in the sign-up box at the top right of the Blog.

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Ben – (NTF).

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Over-thinking… Ignoring the obvious… err guilty and guilty!!

You put in the hard work, compile a solid short-list, have a runner who ticks every box and then BAM! you ignore him!

Here is the top end of the trends from my free analysis guide yesterday…

Address Unknown; slap bang top of the trends!

ADDRESS UNKNOWN, the only horse to score full marks for the race on my trends analysis.

He was also well in the picture on the Dosage trends…

Address Unknown sitting happily in 1 of the green zones…

Even on the pace/draw analysis he was strong given that he had a prime slot on Chester’s tight and turning track…

Sweet draw…

It was a fine example, for those that were not familiar with the race guides, of how an NTF analysis guide works, albeit one that was poorly executed by myself!!

It is frustrating when the answer is staring you in the face after a couple of hours of solid research and you choose to ignore it….frustrating I tell ye!!

Hopefully some of you managed to find ADDRESS UNKNOWN from the analysis…

Ben (NTF)

Dawn Approach; Derby certainty?

It was incredibly hard not to be impressed by Dawn Approach’s 2000 Guineas romp. The bookies were impressed, so impressed in fact that he was slashed across the board into rock solid 7/4 favourite, Coral & Stan James have him even shorter at 6/4.

But what do the Dosage figures tell us?

In case you didn’t know Dosage is a pedigree analysis method that I utilize to help me ‘Narrow The Field‘ in the major National Hunt and Flat races. I won’t go into the deep and dirty details about it here but if you do want to learn more I have a FREE NTF guide on the subject that you can download when you sign up to the FREE NTF service.

Here is the Dosage profile of Jim Bolger’s unbeaten colt…

DAWN APPROACH – DP = 2-4-8-2-0 | Total = (16) | DI = 1.67 | CD = 0.38

Before we get stuck into the Derby I think it is prudent to highlight the fact that DAWN APPROACH was a very snug fit on the figures for the 2000 Guineas whereas his main opponent in the market, the Richard Hannon trained TORONADO, most certainly was not. So much so that Toronado was classed as a ‘Dosage Red’ contender by myself. SKY LANTERN, the winner of the 1000 Guineas, was a snug fit for her race as well and 1 of only 4 runners that sat comfortably in the Dosage Green zone.

Dosage isn’t a method that always hits the nail on the head but for the first 2 Classics of the 2013 flat season it was a solid pointer.

From A Dosage viewpoint what does it take to win the Epsom Derby?

I personally take the past 15 winners of any given race to source the Dosage trends. Here are the main Dosage trends (there are a few more sub-trends I also utilize) for the Epsom Derby…

DP = 12/15 had 20 points or more in their DP

DI = 12/15 had a DI between 1.56 & 0.78

CD = 14/15 had a CD of 0.46 or below | 11/15 had a CD of 0.28 or below

DPA = 12/15 fitted into 1 of the 3 DPA angles (20+ | PATB | DQ)

How does that relate to Dawn Approach?

DP = He doesn’t quite land in this zone

DI = Again he just misses out on this zone

CD = He fits into the wider stats but not quite into the stronger area

DPA = He doesn’t fit into one of these groups

In summary I wouldn’t say he was an ideal fit on this angle. He isn’t miles wide of the mark by any stretch but he does go from being a ‘snug fit’ for the 2000 Guineas to a ‘not ideal’ fit for the Epsom Derby. If we look at last years Guineas & Derby winner CAMELOT he was a ‘snug fit’ for both events and duly obliged in both contests. 

There is obviously the chance that Dawn Approach is a long way clear of his opposition in terms of class and a few poor fits on the Dosage side won’t stop him from reigning supreme. I personally use other methods to analyse a race, in conjunction with Dosage, and I would expect him to score highly on those angles (hell he might be so far ahead on other angles that I will have to overlook his Dosage foibles!!) but the fact he falls on the ‘less than ideal side’ here would, at the very least, be a slight concern. This certainly ranks as an area for anyone trying to find any holes in what so far looks like a bulletproof 3yo.

I wouldn’t be resigning this years 2000 Guineas winner to the Derby Dosage scrapheap, far from it, but he certainly doesn’t hold the strongest Dosage credentials for the race and there are sure to be a few other more suitable Dosage candidates lining up at Epsom on the 1st of June…

Ben – (NTF).

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