Doeslessthanme can Domorethanmost!

Plenty for me to report today so I won’t hang about.

I start, as is my usual Monday modus operandi, with my NTF ’1 to follow from the weekend’…

NTF 1 to follow from the weekend: DOESLESSTHANME…

DOESLESSTHANME (P Nicholls) – Faller in 2m Class 2 Hcp Chase at Worcester (3.10) – Sunday 12th May

Paul Nicholls’ 9yo only actually got as far as the 6th fence in this valuable Sunday contest, where he took what looked a fairly heavy fall. In fairness to the horse the leader at the time Gallox Bridge jumped violently across the front of him in mid-air and the resulting fall can hardly be blamed on sloppy jumping from the Nicholls runner. Until that point he looked to be travelling and jumping well on his first start on Good ground since his victory at Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting in 2012.

So where to now for DOESLESSTHANME?

As already mentioned Sunday was his first start on what I would describe as his favoured ground since his convincing victory at Ayr in 2012. In between that run and Sunday’s start he ran 4 times, all of which were on Good to Soft or worse and in none of those runs has he really shaped as though he has been ready to reproduce his best. Added to all this he has probably been suffering from running from a mark that was above the ceiling of his abilities and/or under race conditions (wrong at the weights in non-handicaps) that would not have suited. The upshot of this is that he has slipped back down to a mark of 145 (only 1lb higher than his Ayr victory) and if Sunday is anything to go by Nicholls is now keen to use a claiming jockey to lessen his burden further to try and get him back to winning ways.

If we look at the horse’s monthly splits we can see he does have a much healthier strike-rate outwith the winter months…

Form from Mar-Oct – 111011F121

Form from Nov-Feb – 621F24531F213226

Admittedly he has never run in the heart of the summer but the temptation must now be to keep him on the go so that he is able to run on the better ground. If not keep him on the go at the very least scrub him off and then bring him back for some of the early season action around October time. He certainly has a strong record when fresh…

Record after a break of 90 days or more – 121121 

He isn’t really at a stage in his career where he will be able to go on a run of victories and it’s highly likely that a win will see him handicapped out of things again, however, he is now back around a mark he can win from and there should be plenty of opportunities for him to get his preferred ground. Even if he is now given a summer break he is a horse we should keep in mind for his comeback run as he does have strong figures when returning to the track from a break.

Doeslessthanme ideal conditions – Good or better ground (Good to soft at a push) | Runs well fresh | Handicap marks around 140-145 or below

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The curious case of Mr Mole…

A monkey? Maybe.

Quirky? Definitely!

Talented? Without a doubt.

Breathing op this summer? Highly likely!

Cries of “are you Harchibald in disguise??” were heard up and down the country on Saturday as the talented but quirky MR MOLE again consented to NOT put his best hoof forward, this time in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock. If I’m honest, however, he only just failed to make it as my 1 to follow runner. “Are you mental Ben?!?” I hear plenty of you cry. Well yeah, maybe, but in this instance I think we can make a case for the 5yo. Clearly he has bundles of ability, of that there is little doubt, and he does look like he is a horse that has to be nudged and cajoled into a contest as quietly as possible, again of that there is little doubt, but I also feel he is a horse that has some strong (or at least is starting to show some strong) preferences.

For starters lets look at his record fresh…

Form after a break of 60 days or more – 111

Form when running within 59 days or less – 22P3

He is quirky and he wants/needs a sustained rest period.

Lets now look at his Left-Hand/Right-Hand preferences…

Form on Left-Handed tracks – 32

Form on Right-Hand tracks – 1121P

That is hardly conclusive but what got me on to thinking of this angle was his run in the Swinton this Saturday. When Harry Derham first went for a run at the winner Barizan he aimed Mr Mole down the left, the horse was having none of it. He then switched him to Barizan’s right and all of a sudden he picked up and consented to run on, albeit the race had gone by that stage, nevertheless Mr Mole noticeable straightened up and picked up. Granted this again is not conclusive proof but we are dealing with a quirky customer here and these little pointers may be all it takes to get him in the winners circle. Is this a sign he is more at home going right-handed?

The other angle that is noticeable from his limited form figures is his form over different trips…

Form over 2m – 2m 1/2f – 22P

Form over 2m1f – 1113

Once again it is far from conclusive evidence but it could just be a sign that he wants a bit further than a break-neck 2m-2m 1/2f contest. There are stamina influences in his pedigree so up in trip a little wouldn’t be out of the question.

Lastly I can’t help but wonder if Ruby may be a benefit to have on-board him? In his 7 career starts it is interesting to note that Ruby is yet to get the leg-up on him. It is a JP McManus horse so understandably when AP McCoy is available he is the first port of call, however, Ruby’s quiet riding style would surely be a benefit for this lad…

Mr Mole still has me interested, for now, and it would be no surprise to see him stroll home in a valuable handicap in October/November time on seasonal debut; fresh, right-handed, 2m1f or further…I’m probably on him!

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Tony Star & Tour D’Argent…

Two previous ‘to follow’ runners were in action at Haydock on Saturday, Tony Star and Tour D’Argent, both contesting the valuable Class 2 intermediate handicap chase. Tony Star once again ran well at a decent Each-Way price without winning although he does just about continue to pay his way. I still think he is on a decent mark and although the each-way money gets pocketed he is proving to be a little frustrating. He equaled his career best on RPR figures and surely there is a race in him sooner rather than later. Tour D’Argent was running under the highlighted (chase) conditions for the first time since he made the NTF to follow list back in February and although he finished a well adrift 6th in the end there were glimmers of hope. The fact of the matter is that he was badly hampered by the ill fated Ulysse Collonges, who unfortunately broke down. That effectively put a stop to Tour D’Argents forward momentum and his chance was gone after that, he is easily forgiven this run and hopefully other opportunities will be found for him.

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FREE NTF Summer Stunners guide…

I’m in the process of firming up this summer jumping guide and it will be with all you guys on the FREE NTF service shortly.

If you want this guide but are not on the free NTF service then simply pop your details in the form at the top right of this page and you will receive the guide when ready or indeed when you sign up (along with numerous other FREE NTF guides).

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Ben – (NTF).

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Over-thinking… Ignoring the obvious… err guilty and guilty!!

You put in the hard work, compile a solid short-list, have a runner who ticks every box and then BAM! you ignore him!

Here is the top end of the trends from my free analysis guide yesterday…

Address Unknown; slap bang top of the trends!

ADDRESS UNKNOWN, the only horse to score full marks for the race on my trends analysis.

He was also well in the picture on the Dosage trends…

Address Unknown sitting happily in 1 of the green zones…

Even on the pace/draw analysis he was strong given that he had a prime slot on Chester’s tight and turning track…

Sweet draw…

It was a fine example, for those that were not familiar with the race guides, of how an NTF analysis guide works, albeit one that was poorly executed by myself!!

It is frustrating when the answer is staring you in the face after a couple of hours of solid research and you choose to ignore it….frustrating I tell ye!!

Hopefully some of you managed to find ADDRESS UNKNOWN from the analysis…

Ben (NTF)

Dawn Approach; Derby certainty?

It was incredibly hard not to be impressed by Dawn Approach’s 2000 Guineas romp. The bookies were impressed, so impressed in fact that he was slashed across the board into rock solid 7/4 favourite, Coral & Stan James have him even shorter at 6/4.

But what do the Dosage figures tell us?

In case you didn’t know Dosage is a pedigree analysis method that I utilize to help me ‘Narrow The Field‘ in the major National Hunt and Flat races. I won’t go into the deep and dirty details about it here but if you do want to learn more I have a FREE NTF guide on the subject that you can download when you sign up to the FREE NTF service.

Here is the Dosage profile of Jim Bolger’s unbeaten colt…

DAWN APPROACH – DP = 2-4-8-2-0 | Total = (16) | DI = 1.67 | CD = 0.38

Before we get stuck into the Derby I think it is prudent to highlight the fact that DAWN APPROACH was a very snug fit on the figures for the 2000 Guineas whereas his main opponent in the market, the Richard Hannon trained TORONADO, most certainly was not. So much so that Toronado was classed as a ‘Dosage Red’ contender by myself. SKY LANTERN, the winner of the 1000 Guineas, was a snug fit for her race as well and 1 of only 4 runners that sat comfortably in the Dosage Green zone.

Dosage isn’t a method that always hits the nail on the head but for the first 2 Classics of the 2013 flat season it was a solid pointer.

From A Dosage viewpoint what does it take to win the Epsom Derby?

I personally take the past 15 winners of any given race to source the Dosage trends. Here are the main Dosage trends (there are a few more sub-trends I also utilize) for the Epsom Derby…

DP = 12/15 had 20 points or more in their DP

DI = 12/15 had a DI between 1.56 & 0.78

CD = 14/15 had a CD of 0.46 or below | 11/15 had a CD of 0.28 or below

DPA = 12/15 fitted into 1 of the 3 DPA angles (20+ | PATB | DQ)

How does that relate to Dawn Approach?

DP = He doesn’t quite land in this zone

DI = Again he just misses out on this zone

CD = He fits into the wider stats but not quite into the stronger area

DPA = He doesn’t fit into one of these groups

In summary I wouldn’t say he was an ideal fit on this angle. He isn’t miles wide of the mark by any stretch but he does go from being a ‘snug fit’ for the 2000 Guineas to a ‘not ideal’ fit for the Epsom Derby. If we look at last years Guineas & Derby winner CAMELOT he was a ‘snug fit’ for both events and duly obliged in both contests. 

There is obviously the chance that Dawn Approach is a long way clear of his opposition in terms of class and a few poor fits on the Dosage side won’t stop him from reigning supreme. I personally use other methods to analyse a race, in conjunction with Dosage, and I would expect him to score highly on those angles (hell he might be so far ahead on other angles that I will have to overlook his Dosage foibles!!) but the fact he falls on the ‘less than ideal side’ here would, at the very least, be a slight concern. This certainly ranks as an area for anyone trying to find any holes in what so far looks like a bulletproof 3yo.

I wouldn’t be resigning this years 2000 Guineas winner to the Derby Dosage scrapheap, far from it, but he certainly doesn’t hold the strongest Dosage credentials for the race and there are sure to be a few other more suitable Dosage candidates lining up at Epsom on the 1st of June…

Ben – (NTF).

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Me, Myself and Horseracing…

Zander Voy

Before I start I would just like to introduce myself and tell you a little bit about me.

I am a 23 year old conditional jockey living in Middleham (North Yorkshire). I’m originally from a small town called Haddington which is only a stone’s throw away from Edinburgh. Horseracing is my passion and I consider myself very fortunate to make a living from a sport I love.

I hope my weekly column can be of interest and give you an insight if my day to day life, on and off the course! No doubt there will be a few laughs along the way…..

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Monday 22nd April

As this is the final week of the 2012/2013 jumps season it is also my 31st and final blog. I have thoroughly enjoyed writing my column every week for Narrowing The Field and I hope you have also enjoyed reading them. Racing wise last week was very quiet but looking at the week ahead I am expecting to be riding up at Perth on Wednesday and then Wetherby later on in the week. It’s very hard at the minute as spare rides are difficult to come by as the fields are getting smaller and smaller as the ground quickens. It is birthdays galore this week, my mother’s on Wednesday and mine on Thursday, so after riding out in the morning I went over to Darlington to go and get her a nice present. In my opinion, the best present she ever got for her birthday was 23 years ago when I came along the day after, arriving fashionably late is something that has stuck with me since then! 

Tuesday 23rd April

My first port of call this morning was Mark Johnston’s. I rode out four lots in there before heading over to Patrick Holmes for a fifth lot of the day. Declarations came out this morning for the first day of the Perth Festival which kicks off tomorrow. I was pleased to hear from my agent Paul Brierley letting me know I have been booked on three, all trained by Lucy Normile. I decided it would be best to load the car up and head up tonight with Kelly to my mums house in Haddington which would mean I could ride out tomorrow morning for Lucy (Normile). 

Wednesday 24th April

I didn’t have to be into Lucy’s yard which is an hour away until 9am, as I had a light-ish weight I decided to get up at 6am and have an a quick sweat in the bath to drop the final pound or two. We done a good bit of schooling in at Lucy’s and everything jumped well. Perth racecourse is only just up the road so I was able to a full mornings riding out before going racing. I never had any luck at all at the races. Saying that though, I was pleased with the way Lord Redsgirth travelled and jumped, he’s just not a three miler and would be suited with a drop in trip and some headgear applied to help him concentrate. Today was my mum’s birthday and mine is tomorrow so we decided to have a joint birthday meal at the Longniddry Inn on the way home from racing, 22 of us turned up in the end and we had a good old time of it! 

Black Velvet Bell rearing before the start.

Flogarose on the way to the start.

Thursday 25th April

My Birthday!! Birthdays in racing yards are days where you have to be on your toes. The lads are quite handy at doing things like spraying the inside of your riding out hat with purple spray, leaving a horrendous thick purple line across your forehead when you take your hat off. Something that has happened to me in the past and would never want it to happen again, it takes forever to come off and you don’t half get some funny looks from the people outside of racing. Thankfully I managed to get through this morning without any pranks from the lads; sigh of relief! We didn’t get home last night until gone midnight so I decided to treat myself by having an extra couple of hours in bed and going into ride out for second lot on-wards rather than first lot. I only rode out three lots and was done plenty early enough. I had no rides at Perth today but I was booked this morning on Silverton in the first race at Perth tomorrow. I decided yet again to head up this afternoon and stay at the mothers. Michael Butters, who is one of my of good friends from back home suggested that we go to for a Jacuzzi and stream room this evening at his expense as it was my birthday, what a great idea!!! 

Friday 25th April

I went into Lucy Normile’s yard again this morning. I only had a couple of lots to school over a few hurdles and was then on route to the races. Silverton was running in the very first race of the day, the 2 mile novices hurdle, her third ever run over hurdles. She is bred to stay so with no real pace in the race I we decided to make the running on her and go a good gallop. She travelled brilliantly and at times jumped rather spectacular. She ran a very solid race to finish 4th at odds of 50/1. She will now get a handicap mark and as long as the handicapper isn’t too harsh she will hopefully build on her placed efforts and get in the no.1 spot. 

Silverton at picturesque Perth.

Silverton in action at Perth

Saturday 26th April

I was hoping to be at Market Rasen today as I had been jocked up on Coffee King all week; he had a minor setback and wasn’t declared which left me with a blank day. I went in to Kelly’s parents Karl and Elaine’s for just a couple of lots so I was home fairly early. I put on all the layers and headed out for a run with the dog before settling down on the sofa to watch all the action. I have been booked on a couple tomorrow at Wetherby so I had an early night! 

Sunday 27th April

Before heading to Wetherby today I went into Mark Johnstons for four lots. I was due Joe Colliver a lift racing so I picked him up after riding out and the pair of us trundled on racing. When we set off we both had two rides but Joe got a phonecall to say on of his wouldn’t be lining up, leaving him with just the one. My first ride was Dicy Vows who is trained by Alan Jarvis and was having his first run over hurdles. He made a bit of a noise when the pace quickened down the back and it got worse the further we went. I pulled him up before three out. My second ride was Dorlesh Way and is trained by Patrick Holmes. I made the running on him and set a fairly steady pace, he jumped super but just got a little tired up the straight and midfield. He will now get a handicap mark and once dropped back in trip can hopefully make his presence felt in his own company.

As the season has now come to an end so has my weekly column. Thank you everyone who has taken the time to read it and I hope you have found it interesting. Also, a massive thank you to Ben who has put it up on his website Narrowing The Field.

All the best – Zander Voy (@Zander_Voy on Twitter)