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Ground looking like a big concern for Elizabeth coffee. Ben do you have any stats on Ian Williams 1st time out after trainer switch. Also if this was a 90+ day qualifier (I.e if Ian Williams was one of the trainers.) how does the trainer switch affect the 90+ day stats. What I mean by that is she had her last run 90 days ago for M Halford therefore not necessarily having 90+ days ian Williams care to get her fit and ready like she would if her last run was for Ian Williams. Hope that all makes sense.
Yes makes sense and although a bit fiddly it can be checked. I Williams rec with 90+ day runners overall is a 6% S/R with around a 30 points loss tp BFLSP (actually does better in May with this lot from a very small sample). His record with switchers (i.e. ran for a different trainer LTO) after a 90+ day break is 3/57 | 5% | -£16.61 BFLSP. It is not great but plenty of them have been unfancied types anyway so it is about what you would expect.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Chester 4:15 Personal Touch has Pivotal as a Sire, so good for the ground. Class dropper, with nice speed figures I wondered if you also like him Ben?
Sorry, I was out all day and just got your comment. I kept my powder dry today when I heard there was going to be HEAVY patches at Chester but I had noted Personal Touch as a potential from the Pivotal line. Not watched replay yet but I see he got touched off a nose and a neck!! Aaaghh agonising if you did back him. Horse clearly enjoys a bit of cut though (well more than a bit of cut based on todays ground!)and one to keep in mind if he gets another chance on the soft stuff.
Thanks for the sire info it looks interesting.
Here are a few positives for tomorrow
3.40 Ch Glenridding (Pivotal)
3.40 Ch April Fool (Pivotal)= well drawn, front runner age the only negative 8yo
Although a couple of recent winners from the in form Ruth Carr in opposition.
5.25 Clock Opera (E Art),6.00 Steer By The Stars (Piv),
7.10 Abishena (Piv),7.45 Secret Witness (Piv)
6.05 Da’ Quonde,6.40 Spread Boy (Piv)
6.45 Think (Sulamani),7.55 Kunegubda (Piv)
Ascot 6.35 Goodwood Atlantis (E City)
Ham 7.15 Just Lille (MOK)
Nott 5.35 Hope N Dreams (E City), 7.55 Yanabeena (S Cry)
Please check, I hope they are correct
That looks about right. Spread Boy (6.40 Ham) is by Tagula though. Glenridding is by AVERTI not Pivotal.
Remember and use the sire angles as a guide. For example Glenridding caught my eye due to his sire but I then looked closer and saw that his form after a break of 90+ day reads 7-8-7-5-0-8 and all his wins have come after a break of 30 days or less. Personally I would swerve him today and then look for him coming back within a couple weeks, especially if ground is still on soft side (surely we will have dried out by then?!?!). If he wins today then so be it but I’m happy to give him a miss on the theory he needs his first run back.
There are a couple of interesting sorts in your list though that may well be worth further consideration.
Secret Quest in the 7.55 at Nottinghma is also a Pivotal offspring, making debut tonight.
Good call with Secret Quest 11/2
I think both Pivotal Fillies from that race – Secret Quest & Kunegunda – could be interesting sorts going forward. Probably not the greatest race in the world but well worth keeping an eye on I think.
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Ben Aitken 2011